Sainath's revenge

P. Sainath has been ridiculed often by the libertarian bloggers as a bleeding heart liberal. Now it is Sainath's turn to tear into his detractors.

The invisible hand of the market is an increasingly visible bunch of grubby paws grasping at public money. Remember the leave-it-to-the-market crowd? It is mostly occupied screaming for state intervention and public money now. The boot is on the other foot. As one famous financial daily says with obvious disgust, the present mess gives new life to “the capitalism-is-dying-crowd.”

Never, though, underestimate the arrogance of the true Market Fundamentalist. The silence on these failures amongst great Indian devotees of that faith is striking.

Power Off. India Off.

Every one was expecting this listing, but it proved to be a damp squib. Reliance Power listed today and tanked 20% from its issue price. Bye bye dreams of Rs. 400.00 premium.

The subtext was even more interesting. CNBC TV 18 was very negative on the issue from day 1, NDTV Profit tried to prop up the sentiment- as late as today morning they were predicting a listing of Rs. 575-600.00. You can draw your own conclusion on the reasons why each channel was having a divergent view.

Is the party over?

I take a week off and the markets fall down by 6000 points. Never knew that I was so important to the Sensex. Now that I am back, things will stabilize. And since everyone is sprouting a theory and setting targets, let me set one too. Sensex 30 K by Jan 2009.

A real nice graphic on the worldwide meltdown.

Being paid in kind

I never knew that stock picking could be such an enjoyable experience.

Reliance Petroleum - I recommended a buy at Rs.180.00. And timed the exit to perfection at Rs. 270.00.

IFCI - Enter at Rs. 79.00 - exit at Rs. 106.00

And all this within a month. The only person to whom I gave these recommendations decided to pay me in kind. This is what I received.

1000 point rally in a single day - and I thought I had seen it all

Back in Feb 2006, I wrote a post when Sensex hit 10,000. It was somewhat like the first under 4 minute mile, I didn't believe it was possible. Looking back it seems childish. Today the Sensex crossed 18,000 and rallied 1000 points in a day.

From 14000 to 15000 it took 153 days, from 15k to 16k 52 days, 16k to 17k 6 days, and 17k to 18k 8 days. The party is on in the stock market and suddenly talk of 20,000 before Diwali 2007 looks close at hand. The numbers are mind boggling.

As I mentioned in my post of 2006, the real driver is the liquidity from FIIs. Last month alone FIIs invested close to 3.5 billion USD in Indian markets. Ofcourse, when they leave, the hangover will be as worse. General consensus seems to be that FIIs have no other emerging market providing such consistent growth stories with low inflation and a democracy to boot (in other words, we don't know why but the foreigners are buying Indian stocks like crazy). Decoupling is another favorite jargon now a days.

In Feb 2006 I had picked three stocks - SBI at Rs.870.00 , NTPC at Rs. 119.00, Hindalco at Rs. 170.00. Today their value is - SBI 1890.00, NTPC 220.00, Hindalco 164.00.

So Dabbler's picks would have given you a return of 45 percent per annum. Any one who wants further picks can mail me. Three picks a month at Rs. 1000.00. I am sure that my reader's aren't naive enough to mail me. Any Tom, Dick and Harry would have achieved the same returns if he had picked any Sensex stock.

May be I will write a similar post on June 2009 when Sensex hits 40,000.