Saturday, May 06, 2006

TN Elections - Last minute attacks

ADMK has released what they expect will be their killer app in this election. Jaya TV had an investigation report yesterday on Karunanidhi helping the family of Nalini, who is convicted in Rajiv Gandhi Murder case. The crux of the report was Karunanidhi helped Nalini's brother in law Raja Vikram and his father Baba Vikram by making them producers for the film "Kannamma" (for which he wrote story, dialogues and screen play). The report alleges that this was done to benefit the family of Rajiv Gandhi's killers.

Technically what Mr. Karunanidhi did is not wrong. But politics is all about last minute swings, and ADMK hopes that this will split the Congress votes for DMK. Personally I think that this will not help ADMK much, as it is too late in the day.

DMK for its part is airing clippings of Karunanidhi's arrest, burning of 3 students in Dharmapuri by ADMK cadres and attacks by ADMK on the opposition parties in Sun TV Channels. DMK goes overboard with this and starts irritating the viewers.

Junior Vikatan, the so called investigative magazine from the Vikatan Stable has come out with its poll predictions - 207 seats for DMK, 26 for ADMK. If you read the explanation given at the end, after all the constituency predictions, they say that this is not based on any quantitative methods; this is purely based on the perceptions of their reporters made in the fireld. From what I know of research, this is pure hogwash. They claim to have studied each constituency in depth. But what they mention is who are the leading contestants, one line for each of the contestants, and why one or the other will win. This is the poll analysis of Tamil Nadu's No.1 magazine. No data on how many people were met, what were the questions asked, how many voters are undecided, what are the major issues - nothing. The poll prediction doesn't havey any numbers, except to give the final tally. It is as good as my dart throwing prediction made a couple of days back.

Such is the fun of TN elections.

15 comments:

Arun said...

It has always been more about the spectacle rather than the actual issues that dominate this election or for any election in the recent past. More so in the South, which has had it share of charimatic leaders.

Arun said...

All hype no substance, Junior Vikatan's "analysis" merely seems to mirror the reality of elections in India - "hogwash".

ada-paavi!!!! said...

chenthil none of the opinion polls are scientific, its difficult to predict the outcome based on opinion polls because the sample isnt large enough. and the sample can easily swing the poll

secondly those who swing polls are the margin voters, and the most accurate poll would have to focus on the margin voter (undecided voters), estimating the margin voter, across a cross section of society and areas of TN is a huge issue.

most polls dont interview more than 3000-5000 ppl and the sample isnt large enough, therefore i have no faith in these opinion polls. they just sell magazines

ram said...

fun actually doesn't end there

watch "Kalaignar's Quiod Pro Quo" in Jaya and

Battle for TN in CNN-IBN for more election fun

Chenthil said...

Ram, that Quid Pro Quo is what I have mentioned in the first para. They telecast it yesterday itself.

I said...

"Scientific opinion poll" is an oxymoron.

ram said...

chen,

i expected a comment from u for CNN IBN progam, 'coz ur friend N.Ram is also a part of it.

Nilu said...

I,
An opinion poll done scientifically becoming a scientific opinion poll is not oxymoronic. Maybe useless. But not oxymoronic. They don't claim to have a scientific opinion - but merely scientific analysis of existing opinion.The opinion being wrong and resulting in error does not undermine the central limit theorem.

OK Chen - was bored.

I said...

Nilu, an opinion poll is never truly scientific or wholesome. It's merely a projection of expected results on "representative" -often limited- data samples.

And yes it is also useless. Most things are useless.

Hawkeye said...

I,

when u want to sell surf-ultra and u do market research on detergents, u do a survey and ask people for their opinion on their current laundry situation. then u do regresssion and crap on that data.

u seem to suggest opinion by definition itself is subjective and different from science. what if i want to survey people's opinions? then those become data. which is what this whole poll-prediction thing is.

Hawkeye said...

chen,

if u really look at it - the only fact that is there in this whole kai-maaru campaign is that karunanidhi and nalini's brother in law worked in the same movie.

if u remove the narration and strip their gimmics this is all they have. no money, no motives, no kai-maaru.

but anyway the target audience here are the idiots who go and blindly vote for congress.

you should be concerned. if ur wife's sister goes on a rampage killing politicians - you become automatically unemployable. kashta pattu padichathellam waste :-)

Hawkeye said...

I,

sorry did not see ur most recent comment. agree it is thro' limited data samples

ada-paavi!!!! said...

@nilu

dude awesome comment, seems intelligent but meaningless ;)

Anonymous said...

My guess is DMK front (including DMK, Congress, PMK, the CPI and CPM and a League faction) will get 190 - 210 seats. It would not be less than 180 in a worst case scenario. The AIADMK alone will get anywhere between 15 and 25 seats, with MDMK (may just manage to open its account), DMDK (may just do the same with Vijayakant) and even BJP chipping in with the rest.

Govardan

Srini said...

Ya funny it is. Funny to this extent http://vettiboss.blogspot.com/2006/04/election-fever.html