Wednesday, May 03, 2006

TN Elections - a prediction

Only 5 more days left for Tamil Nadu assembly elections. All parties have come out with their manifestoes and have regaled the public with their promises. Let me now predict what the results are going to be.

ADMK - 95
DMK - 90
Congress - 25
PMK - 10
MDMK - 5
CPI - 3
CPI (M) - 3
DMDK - 2
Independents - 1 (No, not Lok Paritran)

I have arrived at this prediction based on my knowledge of TN politics, field study and throwing darts. So what do you think?

16 comments:

Vidya said...

DMDK - 2 ?, One is vijayakanth, who is the other one?. Panroti?.

Chenthil said...

Yes, Panrutti Ramachandran

ram said...

25 seems to be too much for congress...

ADMK's win in most constituencies will come at Cong's expense

Guess MDMK will fare better..5 seems to be less

DMK and ADMK score will reverse..DMK will fare slightly better than ADMK..

for ADMK the aim is very simple..they will have to win in 10-15 constituencies against DMK (they are facing in 107 constituencies) to throw a hung assembly and force for coalition govt..

needless to say, first ever coalition govt in TN (imagine the support of ramadoss !!) will not survive long and will be forced for snap polls..

jaya lost the initial lead she had over the DMK front..

enna solreenga?

ada-paavi!!!! said...

i make prediction DPA 130

ADMK 120 (her suitcase mite not help her)

DMK comes to power, with MK in the lead, first coalition govt in tn, then govt falls (namba aalungaluku coalition seripaduma?)

and then lets c

Chenthil said...

Ram - I think Cong will win that many seats. JJ has lost the initial momentum, but I expect her to come up with something in the next few days.

Vatsan - total is only 234. Your arithmetic is wrong :-)

Yes, I agree the first coalition govt will fall in a year.

Zero said...

I thought ADMK (without counting MDMK, that is) was comfortably ahead of DMK. But, seems it's neck to neck.
And only 5 seats for MDMK? Heck, I thought it was quite influential. (All views purely made out on randomly switching TV channels.)

ada-paavi!!!! said...

sorry instead of 110 i said 120, but tink we might see TNs first coalition govt

Deepa said...

May that come true! Not that I am a fan of Amma but MK is too old to become CM again. Let DMK set their house right before coming back to power. What say you?

Tamilan said...

C'mon guys...say it simply...whether is DMK or ADMK? or allied one?

Anonymous said...

My prediction for Chennai

DMK + 10

ADMK + 4

The so called "fort" of DMK will this time be shaken by ADMK alliance, thanks to muscle power of Vlarmathi, Sekar babu and D.Jeyakumar...

Kaps said...

Chenthil,
I feel that the DMK alliance would win 140 - 160 seats.

Can you enable delivery of full RSS feed? At present, am getting only the first few lines thru Bloglines.

Chenthil said...

Deepa, I don't like Amma and MK. What to do?

Tamilan - I am saying it is going to be an ADMK alliance govt.

Anon - I predict ADMK 6 in Chennai - Jayakumar, Sekarbabu, Valarmathi, Saidapet candidate, SV Sekar, Villivakkam (G Kalan)

Kaps - let's see. And I have enabled full feed

ram said...

chen,

villivakkan is too big to predict (in fact the biggest in TN, if i am right),
u have well educated and most illeterate areas coming under it

and D.Renganathan (former Cong man , now in DMK) is a seasoned politician.

Ideamani said...

MDMK has about 10% support in every constituency, but in very few can it push above the 30-40% required for a win

In Chennai, I think DMK will be difficult to beat.

ashok said...

i think 120 for ADMK...
iam surprised u predict 2 to DMDK!
congress may not get more than 20..

anyway, lets wait and watch as the comedy unfolds in a couple of days!

ram said...

chen..

where r u?
in siruthavoor bungalow ?